31 Mayıs 2015 Pazar

The Worlds Most Beautiful Cities

Fra_Carnevale_-_The_Ideal_City_-_Walters_37677The Ideal City by Fra Carnevale, c. between 1480-1484.

The Ideal City is a 15th-century painting usually attributed to the architect and artist Fra Carnavale. It was most likely executed for the Ducal Palace of Urbino, commissioned by Federico da Montefeltro, Duke of Urbino. The Duke was one of the most successful condottieri of the Italian Renaissance, nicknamed “the Light of Italy” for his contributions to enlightened culture.

The Duchy of Urbino was a sovereign state of northern Italy during the Renaissance and today it is a a World Heritage Site notable for a remarkable historical legacy. The beautiful town is nestled on a high sloping hillside, retaining much of its picturesque medieval aspects, with the Ducal palace as its highlight. I think the best time to visit is September, when the autumn light  is spectacular as it shines on the aging brick tiled buildings.

Urbino-palazzo_e_borgo

An ideal city is the concept of a city that has been conceived in accordance with the dictates of some “rational” or “moral” objective. The “ideal” nature of such a city may encompass the moral, spiritual and juridical qualities of citizenship as well as the ways in which these are realised through urban structures including buildings, street layout, etc.

NimesThe ground plans of ideal cities are often based on grids, in imitation of Roman military camp town planning, like Nimes in Provence, depicted on the right, or other regular geometrical patterns such as the square blocks with chamfered corners in the Exiample district in Barcelona.

The ideal city is often an attempt to deploy Utopian ideals at the local level of urban configuration and living space and amenity rather than at the culture- or civilisation-wide level of the classical Utopias such as St Thomas More‘s.

In Place Branding, such qualities and aesthetics impact on a city brand can not be disregarded. Contrary to the popular perception that destination-brand building is solely an exercise in communication, destination branding is, in reality, an exercise of identification, organisation and coordination of all the variables that have an impact on the destination image, not the least its aesthetic appeal.

Some years ago, Forbes surveyed city specialists from a range of fields, including urban planning, architecture and sustainable development to make a top ten list, and not surprisingly, it contains the usual suspects. Most cities are not exactly what would be called beautiful and the term ‘concrete jungle’ doesn’t conjure up visions of paradise. However it is no secret that Paris, Rome, Barcelona and Berlin are amazing cities rich with beautiful architecture, unparalleled history, amazing culture and much more.

However, the world is rich with many other wonderful cities that tend to fly a little under the radar of the average tourist. Traveling to a slightly more obscure city, for example Pula in Istria, can be as great of an experience as hitting the capitals and bustling metropolises.

Screenshot 2015-05-28 13.25.41

Since beauty is subjective, Forbes surveyed city specialists from a range of fields, including urban planning, architecture and sustainable development. Respondents to the survey included Reynolds and Michael Kaufman, an architect at Chicago-based architectural firm Goettsch Partners, as well as Raymond Levitt, director of the construction program in civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, Tony McGuirk, an urban designer, architect, and Chairman of BDP in London, J. Hugh O’Donnell of urban engineering firm MMM International, and Ken Drucker, New York design director of architectural firm HOK. Click on the image below to see results of Forbes survey.

Screenshot 2015-05-28 14.07.51

The Rough Guide have made their own list, voted by their web visitors. Click on the banner below to see a stunning show of city pictures.

Screenshot 2015-05-28 13.07.40

Also Urban City Guides have their own ranking, which includes Venice, Paris, Prague, Lisbon, Rio de Janeiro, Amsterdam, Florence, Rome, Budapest and Bruges, and the Top Universities site have a ranking of the ten most beautiful cities for students, and so on.

BangkokWhat is common among the webs city ranking websites is that they list the usual suspect western top destinations and they seem to be highly subjective. There is no clear ranking model and no survey made among a globally representative population. The web site authors, including Forbes, seems to have limited knowledge of statistics sampling theory and how to avoid selection bias.

The earliest Western theory of beauty can be found in the works of early Greek philosophers from the pre-Socratic period, such as Pythagoras. The Pythagorean school saw a strong connection between mathematics and beauty. In particular, they noted that objects proportioned according to the golden ratio seemed more attractive. Ancient Greek and Roman architecture is based on this view of symmetry and proportion. It should be possible to set up a ranking model for an ideal city composite index based on this, and also on factors such as crime rate, health factors and citizen and visitor satisfaction factors.

If there is any ranking of city aesthetics that is unbiased and of scientific value, then please let us know.

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30 Mayıs 2015 Cumartesi

Artificial Intelligence – The Ultimate Invention

“There will be this big junction in human history when we transition from an area dominated by biological intelligence to an era dominated by machine intelligence. … This will be the last invention humans will need to make, because after that we will have this machine super intelligence that will be better at invention than we are.” – Nick Bostrom

neuromancerIt is Sunday and time for a lighter topic article again. Or… is this topic really light? The idea of artificial intelligence have occupied humanity for as long as we record history. Thinking machines and artificial beings appear already in Greek myths, such as Talos of Crete, the bronze robot of Hephaestus, and Pygmalion’s Galatea. Now it is becoming reality also outside of fiction.

In Bearing we help our clients develop innovation and innovation systems, which in its turn depends on inventions or discoveries of some kind. Some science fiction movies I have watched recently have made me think about the limits of discovery, and what would be the ultimate invention, if not autonomously functioning and self learning artificial intelligence? This thought used to be science fiction, but today many scholars think it can become reality quite soon.

The current state of AI

As explained in an article in Wired last year, three recent breakthroughs have unleashed the long-awaited arrival of artificial intelligence. The three breakthroughs are:

  1. Cheap parallel computation with parallel computation chips and parallel processing software.
  2. Big Data and the cloud, with the incredible avalanche of collected data about our world, which provides the schooling that AIs need.
  3. Better algorithms, including a new approach to design neutral networks and creation of deep-learning algorithms.

This perfect storm of parallel computation, bigger data, and deeper algorithms generated the 60-years-in-the-making overnight success of AI, and this convergence suggests that as long as these technological trends continue, and there is no reason to think they will not, AI will keep improving.

In the future, how will we tell if a robot has human-level intelligence? For decades, the litmus test of choice was the Turing Test, which asks: can a computer program fool one in three judges into thinking it’s human? But the Turing Test says nothing about a program’s ability to reason, or to be creative or aware. It’s essentially an exercise in deception, so scientists have started devising other metrics to measure artificial intelligence.

David Hume - A Treatise of Human Nature"Nothing is more usual and more natural for those, who pretend to discover anything new to the world in philosophy and the sciences, than to insinuate the praises of their own systems, by decrying all those, which have been advanced before them." -David Hume

Since Olaf Stapledon´s Last and First Men, Jules Verne´s The Master of the World and H.G. Wells The Time Machine, authors use science fiction to illustrate philosophy and philosophical dilemmas. From ethical quandaries to the very nature of existence, science fiction’s most famous texts are tailor-made for exploring philosophical ideas, and so are, to a rapidly increasing degree, motion pictures.

Recently, on an overnight flight from Nairobi to Zurich, I watched the very smart movie Ex Machina. This new, British movie explores the real meaning of intelligence and consciousness, and in my view, not since Stanley Kubrick’s masterpiece 2001: A Space Odyssey has a film about AI been this good.

The Fictional Universe

Rutger Hauer in Blade RunnerThe notion of artificial intelligence, whether on computer screens or in robot form, have long fascinated the makers of science-fiction and other recent movies about AI have been Transcendence, Moon and Antonio Banderas recent Automata, not to mention classics like Alien, Metropolis, Westworld, Blade Runner, The Terminator, The Matrix and The 13th Floor.

These movies are often dystrophic and depict artificial intelligence as a dangerous menace that threatens mankind. The underlying question is, why would a super-smart, self-aware artificial intelligence need us, humans, once we have developed it and it has become self-sufficient? We would merely be in its way and to it, we would be like ants and other insects are to us. We can set rules for the AI, but would it obey them, once it would learn how to enhance and modify itself?

The Dangers of Smart

Robotics are a set of laws, rules, or principles, which are intended as a fundamental framework to underpin the behaviour of artificial intelligence designed to have a degree of autonomy. The best known set of laws are those proposed by Isaac Asimov in the 1940s, which state:

  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.

Isaac Asimov - I RobotThe main problem with any set of laws is that an artificial intelligence may be faced with ethical dilemmas in which any result will harm at least some humans, in order to avoid harming more humans. The classic example involves a robot who sees a runaway train which will kill ten humans trapped on the tracks, whose only choice is to switch the track the train is following so it only kills one human.

Some fiction use this dilemma as a license for the robots to try to conquer humanity for its own protection. However the dilemma may be bigger than this, as "humanity" is such an abstract concept that the artificial intelligence may not even know if they were harming it or not.

How do we even know how an artificial intelligence would qualify as "harm", if the restriction of such laws of robotics would simply prohibit physical harm, or if social harm is also forbidden? In this last case, conquering humanity in order to implement tyrannical controls to prevent physical harm between humans might nonetheless constitute a social harm to humanity as a whole.

Beyond the Human Race

There are good reasons to think in this direction, as well known thinkers like Bill Gates, Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking have pointed out, as they in recent times have made strong warnings that development of artificial intelligence could lead to the end of humanity, just as we in some dark historic past exterminated the Neanderthals.

In December 2014, Stephen Hawking told the BBC in an interview that "The development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race." In an interview after the launch of a new software system designed to help him communicate more easily, he said there were many benefits to new technology but also risks. His comments on AI start at 4,22 minutes into the video.

Stephen Hawking: ‘AI could spell end of the human race’

 

In November 2014, Elon Musk, the entrepreneur behind Space-X and Tesla, warned that the risk of “something seriously dangerous happening” as a result of machines with artificial intelligence, could be in as few as five years. Below is a video where Elon Musk expresses his concerns.

AI like summoning a demon, probably our biggest threat” warns Musk

 

Maybe we can control the potential menace if we collectively act in a responsible way as we develop AI? In January this year, a group of scientists and entrepreneurs, including Erik Brynjolfsson, Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking, signed an open letter promising to ensure AI research benefits humanity.

The letter warns that without safeguards on intelligent machines, like the laws of Robotics mentioned above, mankind could be heading for a dark future. It highlights speech recognition, image analysis, driverless cars, translation and robot motion as having benefited from the research. The letter says “The potential benefits are huge, since everything that civilisation has to offer is a product of human intelligence; we cannot predict what we might achieve when this intelligence is magnified by the tools AI may provide, but the eradication of disease and poverty are not unfathomable.

Aldous Huxley - Brave New WorldHowever by the recent automation and technology development, we have not just been redefining what we mean by artificial intelligence, away from Isaac Asimov’s humanoid robots. We have been redefining what it means to be human.

Over the past 60 years, as mechanical processes have replicated behaviours and talents we thought were unique to humans, we have had to change our minds about what sets us apart. Just as the crisis of religion has reduced us to an animal among animals, AI development is reducing our self-image of humans as a uniquely intelligent species.

As we invent more advanced artificial intelligence, we will be forced to surrender more of what is supposedly unique about us humans. I think it is likely we will spend the upcoming decades in a permanent identity crisis, constantly asking ourselves to what purpose humans are for.

In the grandest irony of all, the greatest benefit of an everyday, utilitarian artificial intelligence that is smarter than us, will not be increased productivity or an economics of abundance or a new way of doing science, although all those will most likely happen.

The greatest benefit of the arrival of artificial intelligence will be that AIs will help to define humanity. Ultimately we will need AIs to tell us who we are.

42But once we have created the super smart machines that can help us figure out the Universe and they start to produce answers, will we understand them? Will we with our five senses be capable of comprehending a world that may be multi-dimensional and potentially with parallel realities?

Just as 42 is the "Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything" in The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy books, as calculated by the greatest computer of them all, I wonder will we understand the answers? Or will we react as the men in the fictional universe of Douglas Adams, who did not know what to do once they knew the answer was “42”, because nobody knew what the question was.

Extinction or Utopia?

To finish this article, I would like to introduce the video below. From a Royal Society conference in London, Nick Bostrom, of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, tells the FT’s Ravi Mattu a day will come when machines are more intelligent than humans, and that more must be done to address the potential risks of such a scenario. It is well worth watching, keeping in mind the reasoning on dangers of AI´s which I have introduced above.

AI and the Future for Humanity

 

So what will happen with the human race in the long run? Maybe it will be as Rutger Hauer´s Replicant says to Harrison Ford in his final words in Ridley Scott´s 1982 neo-noir dystopian science fiction film Blade Runner. The question is though, is Hauer talking on behalf of the Robot or the Human, or on behalf of a collective concern they both may share?

Tears in rain monologue

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The Damocles Impact of Sub-Zero Interest Rates

Interest rates in the advanced economies are set to be lower and lower, and many Economists are worried this may cause dangerous deflation. I have written about this in two articles earlier this year, In Denmark You are now Paid to take out a Mortgage and How low can the interest rates go?

Screenshot 2015-05-30 14.09.15

Now deposit interest rates at the ECB and some other European central banks are below zero. In a video from earlier this week, the Financial Times Christopher Thompson and Ferdinando Giugliano discuss why central banks took such a dramatic step and if negative rates are having the desired effect.

Sub-zero Rates

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Multimodal Transport and Railway Systems – Tokyo Station City

place_thumb.jpgOur third article in the series of posts on multimodal transport and railway systems will be about Tokyo Station City, the Marunouchi Station and its surrounding area. Served by Shinkansen high-speed rail lines, Tokyo Station is the main intercity rail terminal in Tokyo, next to the Imperial Palace in the centre of the city.

It is the busiest station in Japan in terms of number of trains per day (over 3,000), and the fifth-busiest in Eastern Japan in terms of passenger throughput. It is also served by many regional commuter lines of Japan Railways, as well as the Tokyo Metro network. In recent years it has been extensively re-developed.

The Japanese nation is famous for its diligence and hard work, as well as its profound and rich cultural heritage and history. Japanese people’s dedication and ability to innovate made Japan the currently third largest economy in the world, and the ambition with the station development is well aligned with this.

Japan’s high-tech industry makes some of the strongest competitors in the world in their field. Also in rail transport, there is a strong competitiveness between numerous companies, with the majority of railway companies being in fact financially independent, meaning their railway operations are usually profitable, if not making a sharp contrast to most transit networks in other countries.

jp_06Being the primary choice for transport in Tokyo, rail naturally has the most developed urban railway network. Tokyo Metropolis comprises of over 880 interconnected rail stations, of which 282 are Subway stations. The most influential and widespread railway company in Tokyo is JR East, also being the largest passenger railway company in the world.

Tokyo Station is the busiest railway station in Japan in terms of the number of trains, with the number of passengers entering the station daily reaching 380 000.

jp_07

The initial idea behind the revitalization project was to create an image of a railway complex unique in the world – a part of the city where culture, shopping, entertainment and business would combine into a single unit.

The Quad HelixThe visioning process to engage stakeholders for the development seems to have been very thorough. In Japan there is a principle called "Nemawashi”, which means the laying the foundation for some proposed change or project, by talking to the people concerned, gathering support and feedback, and so forth. It is considered an important element in any major change, before any formal steps are taken, and successful nemawashi enables changes to be carried out with the consent of all sides.

In Japan, especially high ranking people expect to be let in on new proposals prior to an official workshop or meeting. If they find out about something for the first time during the meeting, they will feel that they have been ignored, and they may reject it for that reason alone.

Thus, it is important to approach stakeholders individually before formal meetings. This provides an opportunity to introduce the proposal to them and gauge their reaction, and it also allows for good chance to hear their input.

imageThis is a process we also follow very much in Bearing, when we work with development of visions and strategy for both public sector and corporate sector clients.

Individual stakeholder meetings is a key to successfully develop and anchor any change, followed by workshops and meetings where the stakeholders can see that there is a consensus.

The visioning process for Tokyo Station City began in 1996. The ambition was to create an “able city of new opportunities” within the dimensions of amenity, business, life and environment. Key input to the visioning process was:

  1. The district must transform into an attractive urban space, in order to survive fierce inter-city competition.
  2. Measures should be taken to upgrade the district´s functions as an international financial centre, and to transform the district from a CBD (Central Business District) to an ABC (Amenity Business Core).
  3. The district must become a model economic centre for surrounding districts, as well as a model of urban development in Tokyo.

The basic principles for the visioning process was expressed as pictured below, from the District Redevelopment Project Council notes in April 2008:

Screenshot 2015-05-30 10.54.46

The visioning process was ambitious and the discussion was held with a number of parties in four sectors, as can be seen in the illustration below.

Screenshot 2015-05-30 10.47.17

Marunouchi is home to nearly 4,000 companies where approximately 230,000 people work. As a business centre, it competes with New York City in the number of Fortune Global 500 company headquarters it hosts.

In brief, the redevelopment project aspired to transform Marunouchi into “the liveliest, most interactive town in the world.” Meaning the project should make Tokyo Station City  into not only a business district, but a vibrant, bustling district for business and lifestyles where the 8 goals agreed by stakeholders became:

  1. City that can lead the world in business
  2. City that bustles with people
  3. City as the centre of information in the information era
  4. City that respects both quiet traditions and dynamic activities
  5. Convenient and comfortable city
  6. Environmentally-friendly city
  7. City that is safe and secure
  8. City that the community, government and visitors cooperate in developing

The concrete ambition of the project, as we understand it, can be seen as a number of ambitions within four different fields, as mapped through the graphic displaying four main factors shown below.

Screenshot 2015-05-29 08.30.00

In order to broaden the revenue source for the Tokyo Station City project and enable the funding for the development, numerous private Japanese companies invested in areas around the station in order to set up new business as a part of the diversification strategy. It resulted in present-day Tokyo Central Station being made up out of the original old building and surrounding buildings which belong to the JR group.

Screenshot 2015-05-29 08.27.22

The first stage of the renovation happened prior to 2007 with the construction of ‘’GranRoof’’ concourse between two towers covering the part of the station.

Between 2007 and 2011 the early twentieth-century station damaged during the Second World War was restored to its original architectural form, reinforcing the resistance to future large scale earthquakes. The old building of Tokyo Station was completely renovated at a cost of 50 billion yen, restoring the third floor as well as adding a shopping floor and two basement levels for technical equipment and car parking.

Screenshot 2015-05-30 11.05.52

The second phase which ended in 2013 was a construction of a second tower next to “Gran Tokyo North” and a reconstruction of a middle part of “GranRoof”.

Screenshot 2015-05-29 08.29.03

In this case study we have also researched the way the project was financed, and the structure of investments. The commercial project was initiated by JR East and the total estimated cost of the restoration project of the Tokyo Station is 50 billion yen (€ 368 million). The total estimated cost for the Tokyo Station City project is 130 billion yen (€ 959 million), not including the cost of land and other expenses for other projects that are done by individual companies.

The structure of the involved entities was as displayed:

Screenshot 2015-05-29 08.31.06

The project amined to enhance transport node function and create a pedestrian space, but at the same time found a new world scale business hub. The goal was to create a place where companies or people could interact with business companies, research institution and universities. This acted as a preparation of fertile soil for future commercial development projects while staying on the course of restoring the station itself.

Screenshot 2015-05-29 08.31.36

Next week we will present the Citybanan project in Stockholm, Sweden, a 6km long commuter train under water and under ground tunnel with two new underground stations below the city, whose goal was to double the capacity of Stockholm Central Station.

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29 Mayıs 2015 Cuma

Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands

Screenshot 2015-05-28 11.51.14

Brand innovation is one of the 12 dimensions of innovation and increasingly important in a world where intangible values has become more important than technical features for many products and services.

Brands value can be measured and compared, and the most recognized approach is BrandZ, Millward Brown‘s brand equity database. It holds data from over 3 million consumers about 100,000 brands, across 400 categories in over 50 countries, and is used to estimate brand valuations. Each year since 2006, it has been used to generate a list of the top 100 global brands.

The 2015 report was launched this month, and it has been 10 years since WPP and Millward Brown launched the BrandZ™ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands. During the intervening decade, 2006 to 2015, Brand Value increased 126 percent to $3.3 trillion. In the 2015 report alone value rose 14 percent.

Marking the 10th Anniversary, in the video below WPP chief Sir Martin Sorrell and marketing heads from Coca-Cola, L’Oréal, Orange and SAP look at the impact on brand value of technology, emerging markets and millennial consumers.

Martin Sorrell on Brand Value

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28 Mayıs 2015 Perşembe

When a Buyer Asks “What Is Your Fee?”

Consultants have a belief that they ALWAYS the answer they believe the buyer wants to hear. When a buyer asks “What is your fee?” early on in a conversation the consultant feels compelled to give a response. If you respond right away and say “$7500″ you’re playing the buyer’s game and you’ve lost control. There […]

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Private Equity Made Simple

Barbarians at the GateThis week, the Financial Times published a brief video which explains what private equity is all about. I first learned about private equity in the autumn of 1988, while I was studying the corporate finance course at Stockholm School of Economics. During that autumn, Kohlberg-Kravis-Roberts & Co (KKR) bought the huge conglomerate RJR Nabisco Inc. in a leveraged buy-out, in competition with nearly all of the major private equity players of the day, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Salomon Brothers, First Boston, Wasserstein Perella & Co., Forstmann Little, Shearson Lehman Hutton, and Merrill Lynch. Most of those firms do not exist any more, although KKR remains and is one of the most successful.

We used the on-going drama as a case study at the SSE, and it was later captured in the excellent motion picture Barbarians at the Gate. Many times since then, we have been involved in work with private equity firms and their holdings, including our long collaboration with Musa Capital in South Africa. Private equity firms have come of age since their corporate raider days and are increasingly vying for retail investors’ cash. But what do they do? And what risks do investors face? John Authers, Financial Times senior investment columnist, explains.

Private Equity Made Simple

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27 Mayıs 2015 Çarşamba

How Hedge Funds Make Money

hedge-funds drawingBeing an avid reader of Financial Times, I like the educational videos they frequently publish. Below is one from today,  about how hedge funds differ from traditional investment funds and how they make money.

Hedge funds make use of short-selling, leverage and discretion to magnify their gains, but as the FT’s senior investment columnist John Authers points out, their techniques involve huge risks and they reward themselves too handsomely.

Financial services consulting is one of the focus areas of Bearing and I know many of our readers are interested in this topic. Enjoy the video! Some years ago, I wrote an article about the effect hedge funds have on the wider economy, which may also be interesting to read.

How Hedge Funds Make Money

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25 Mayıs 2015 Pazartesi

What do consultants do?

It’s one person’s opinion, but here are 130 blog posts which I wrote over the last 3 years to describe my world-view of consulting.  Hope you find it useful. Consultants are a strange breed of animal.  We span all industries, … Continue reading

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Multimodal Transport and Railway Systems – Vienna Central Station

place_thumb.jpgIn the second part of the series started last week, we will be showing another example of a multimodal transport and railway system. This time we will take a look at Vienna Central Station, in Austria.

Austria is the 12th richest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita It is known for its stable economy, with a high standard of living and a well-developed social market economy. Vienna, the capital of Austria, is also by far the largest city in the country with a population of more than 1.7 million citizens. It is regularly ranked as one of the most liveable cities in the world.

Wien Hauptbahnhof

Vienna has a well-developed public transport network where the four main forms of transport are U-Bahn (subway), Schnellbahn or S-Bahn (local train), Straßenbahn (tram) and Autobus (bus). Vienna public transport Wiener Linien operates five underground lines, 29 tram and 90 bus lines, of which 24 are night lines.

Around 2.5 million passengers use the Wiener Linien network every day, so the public transport vehicles cover a distance of 180,000 kilometres daily – roughly the same distance as orbiting the earth 4.5 times.

The idea of building a central through station dates back to 19th century, but it was delayed for a long time because of financial reasons. The new station will be replacing the previous 5 scattered end stations and it will provide efficient east-west and north-south links. It will be a main hub for national and international travels. Below is the schedule of the main planning and construction project.

vi_01In the new central through station, travellers and commuters benefit from direct and rapid connections and will be able to change trains quickly and conveniently on the same platform. Apart from rapid transit and local train lines, it is served by underground U1 as well as by two bus lines and three tram lines.

image

An entirely new urban district is being developed on the former ÖBB site, with the station as a catalyst for the development of the neighbourhood area. Altogether, approximately 5,000 apartments are being built to accommodate 13,000 residents, offices for 20,000 employees and space for hotels, shops, services and catering operations. The area south of the site is designated primarily for an attractive residential district around the 7-hectare Helmut-Zilk-Park.

The corner of Wiedner Gürtel and Arsenalstraße is destined to be the future home of the new headquarters of Erste Group Bank AG. Immediately south, a real estate developer is constructing an office/residential complex. The southern forecourt of the train station is designated for the ÖBB Group headquarters.

image

The structure of the involved entities is as displayed:

Screenshot 2015-05-25 17.56.51

In the graphic displayed below, we have mapped the vision of the project, through four main factors that we identified were relevant in all of the projects we analysed.

Screenshot 2015-05-25 17.58.28

It was important to detect the influence of the project in all of the four sections, to put emphasis not only on the hard factors, but also on the soft factors of the project, mainly the effect it will have on the community.

Screenshot 2015-05-25 15.02.00

As with the previous case study about the Kings Cross development, in this example we also analysed the structure of the financing of the project, with several sources of income, and another example of a private public partnership.

The simplified scheme of the financing shows all of the detected sources of income, as well as the estimated value of the investment into the project. Expected investments for the Vienna main station (rail infrastructure and train station) are around €987 million. Total estimated value is expected to reach €4 billion.

Screenshot 2015-05-25 18.00.11

Vienna’s new Central Railway Station, including the new BahnhofCity mall, was opened on 10 October 2014. Construction works to replace the old Südbahnhof with a new Central Railway Station and to build a new residential area are expected to be completed during 2015. The total area of new train infrastructure is 50ha, and approximately 100km of new rails have been laid out. By the end of 2019, it is expected that all of the residential buildings as well as the park will be completed. below is a picture showing the expected results.

Screenshot 2015-05-25 15.04.44

Our next article will be presenting the Tokyo Station City restoration project, a synthesis of transportation and commercial and business clusters.

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The Expert Myth: How Looking Up Can Hold You Back

I personally speak with hundreds of consultants each year. That becomes hundreds of hours of conversations. And I LOVE it. I get to hear first-hand the latest stories, challenges, goals, what’s working and what isn’t from consultants all around the world in all different industries. Conversations with consultants in my coaching program go much deeper. […]

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24 Mayıs 2015 Pazar

Rural Tourism can Revitalise the Countryside

In most of Europe, summer has set in, and many families are preparing for their annual holidays. Today, in times of stress, hectic pace, lack of time for ourselves and yearning for quality-life activities, rural tourism represents an excellent opportunity to escape  the stressful everyday life in our cities and provides the possibility of spending a pleasant holiday which evokes nostalgia for the times of our grandmothers.

Rural tourism

Rural tourism means holidays outside of our cities and towns, where there is a low population density and villages where the visitors engage in outdoors activities and participation in rural lifestyle, often in scenic locations. This type of tourism is an inexpensive and educational experience that can be enjoyed by the whole family.

Tourism in general is important for our economies. It is a fast growing sector and in Europe, the tourism industry generates more than 5% of the EU GDP, with about 1,8 million companies employing around 5,2% of the total labour force (approximately 9,7 million jobs). When related sectors are taken into account, the estimated contribution of tourism to GDP creation is much higher: tourism indirectly generates more than 10% of the European Union’s GDP and provides about 12% of the labour force.

Tourism in Bavaria

Rural Tourism

Rural tourism is an activity that can have a significant impact on the economic, social and functional structure of rural areas, not only in the advanced economies but also in developing nations where farmland has become fragmented due to population growth. In Europe, rural tourism is popular in Italy, Spain and France as well as other European countries. Further below in this article, I give two examples from from the south and north of the continent, Croatia and Sweden.

Rural tourism - dining roomIf developed smart, in accordance with the principles of ecological and sustainable development, rural tourism can be one of the initiators of revitalization of rural areas and one of the factors that may have a critical role in restoration and sustainable rural development.

The European Union provides project funding for investments in rural and eco-tourism, such as the Ecotourism Knowledge Network. The EU also considers tourism as one of the sectors that can provide a valuable contribution to the achievement of the Europe Horizon 2020 objectives.

The benefits arising from the development of rural tourism are multiple and are reflected primarily in preventing departure of working-age segment of the population from farms and rural areas, construction of utilities and public social infrastructure, raising awareness of the preservation of tradition and cultural heritage and the realization of additional income in the economy.

Rural tourism can consolidate, restore and organize the village in a completely different way, in order to obtain a tourist focus and to use the space and the existing structure in the best possible way, without degrading the natural environment.

Rural Tourism - farm

It is the indispensable factor in the activation and sustainable development of rural areas, which helps to preserve the local identity, traditions and customs, protects the environment and strengthens autonomous, traditional and ecological production and helps to develop rural areas on the basis of sustainable development.

Rural tourism is a term covering about twenty different forms of tourism that occur outside areas of cities and areas of mass tourism. It is characterized by tourist attractions that take place in rural areas. Its importance is reflected in the interaction between agricultural production, production of traditional products, traditional cuisine and tourist services, i.e.. the use of existing resources of rural areas and villages, as its constituent part.

Rural tourism in Catalunia

Also, the revitalization of existing, traditional buildings and cultural heritage, which are given a new, modernized economic, i.e.. tourism purpose is very important. Taking into account the size of the area rich in natural beauties, authentic and healthy cuisine, rural tourism is becoming an increasingly important part of the overall contemporary tourist offer.

The basis for development of rural tourism are rural family farms, which are engaged in tourism as an additional activity. They are considered the paradigm of rural tourism, although there are other forms of business organizations as well, such as cooperatives and dedicated business companies.

Traffic congestionAs demand for this form of tourism offer increased, many European countries, such as Austria, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom began to encourage the development of tourism on farms and many European countries have today developed this form of tourism at a high level. In European countries, they were very well aware of the advantages of rural tourism on farms.

This form of tourism does not require large additional investments because farms already have a base to offer tourist facilities and participation in the farms lifestyle. The most important thing that had to be done in order to start the development was the encouragement by national and regional authorities that had to find ways to convince the population in the countryside that they can feel the benefits of tourism as well.

Today, there are between 600,000 and 1,000,000 registered facilities in Europe that provide services in rural tourism, with up to 12 million beds. Across Europe, it is estimated that there are 1.5 to 3 million employees engaged in hosting rural tourists.

Rural tourism - table

Rural Tourism in Croatia

Croatia, with a vast countryside and sparsely populated hinterland, has a great potential for development of rural tourism. By its attraction basis, it does not lag behind in comparison to other European countries that have remarkably well develop rural tourism, indeed, with the wealth of its rural area, it overcomes many of them.

Croatian rural areas, which accounts for about 90 percent of the surface of Croatia, is very diverse, from the coastal hinterland and north-eastern mountainous areas to the large and fertile plains of the east. Within this area, there is a rich cultural and natural heritage, of world and international importance. As we are currently working with Eastern Slavonia, we see the massive untapped potential.

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Considering the natural and cultural diversity of its regions, rich resource base of the tourist attractions, preserved environment and more than 100,000 registered agricultural farms, Croatia has the prerequisites for the development of rural tourism, and other special forms of tourism related to the rural area, but those, so far, have not been fully used for the development of tourism. The main reasons for the underdevelopment of rural tourism in Croatia is overemphasized orientation on development of maritime tourism on the beautiful Adriatic coast.

Even though three quarters of Croatian rural areas have the characteristics of socio-economic crisis, rural tourism is not yet used systematically as a tool to revitalize the problem of rural areas. Despite recognising the importance of rural tourism as a possible mean of development, as well as great potential for the enhancement of selective forms of tourism, Croatia is still in the initial stage of development of this form of tourism, and tourism on rural family farms in particular.

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Although, since 1996. when the operational and organizational development of rural tourism in Croatia began, until today, the number of registered tourist rural family farms at the national level is continuously increasing. A number of regulations and laws governing the provision of tourism and hospitality services in village households were passed and the main strategic goals of Croatian tourism in rural areas were defined as well.

Also, considering that Croatia has a rich and diverse, but poorly guarded traditional architectural heritage, the Ministry of Tourism began to systematically co-finance individual projects preserving traditional architectural heritage through the Programme of incentives, protection, restoration and involvement of natural and cultural heritage in tourism in the underdeveloped areas. In that way, natural and cultural landscapes with authentic, diverse traditional architecture become basic tourism resources.

IMG_0792Today, there are over 460 registered family tourist farms in Croatia. Rural tourism on these family farms is the most developed in the coastal area, more specifically in the region of Istria.

Although numerous experiences from the world show that compound of sun and beach and rural tourism is not necessary nor essential for its development, since guests who choose the tourist rural households have a different understanding of rest, it is evident, from examples of Istria and Dubrovnik-Neretva County that more diverse attractive factors, with developed tourism infrastructure and tradition of tourism, plays an important role.

The great advantage of rural tourism is that it can be sold all 12 months of the year, and that could be the solution for the biggest problem of Croatian tourism – seasonality. Today, there are various stimulating development programs for rural tourism, in inland areas, but also counties on the coast, with the aim of extending the tourist season and giving a new quality of total Croatian tourism.

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Rural Tourism in Sweden

In the Spring the Swedish countryside is waking up after the cold fierce Winter. The days quickly become longer and it is more likely that when you wake up it is no longer dark outside. Random flowers pop up and in the distance you hear birds twittering. Then in the summer, daylight lasts from the moment you wake up and as late as ten-eleven at night. This is the season when Swedes spend as much time as possible outdoors, when the sun is bright and the sky is blue with a few scattered, fluffy cumulous clouds.

Rural tourism is increasingly important in East Sweden, where we work with regional development since many years, as we have written about in previous articles, including the study the Digital Visitor. The landscape of east Sweden is primarily agricultural with pleasant villages and small towns.

Lantgård i Sverige

If you head up north you can quite easily stay out all day and all night and darkness will not even set. In the countryside, you can hear the sounds of farm animals, birds, boats rumbling on the thousands of lakes, people dive in for a swim for the real outdoor nature experience and then rush out to the smell of a barbecue and if you are lucky as you walk back home from the fun of the day you might even catch the silhouette of a playful deer jumping in the fields, or the silhouette of a mighty moose on the other side of the field.

Kor i SverigeThe agri-tourism farm stay concept is organized by Bo på Lantgård (literally meaning, ‘Staying on a farm’). You can opt for self-catering or bed and breakfast. It is a wholesome type of holiday – fresh farm eggs, freshly baked farmhouse bread and farm animals, and if you opt for self-catering, be assured that the farm hosts will not bother you unless you want it. Swedes excel in respecting privacy.

Bo på Lantgård even organize the farm stays into themes. Choose from a horse, fishing, motor biking or conference theme with accommodation options ranging from country cottage style to manor houses. There are also many internet pages about specific Swedish farms or locations, such as this one.

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